March Madness – Your NCCA Tournament Betting Strategy Guide

‘March Madness’ is the colloquial name given to the NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament, with this taking place every single spring in the US. This season’s iteration will start with the first round on March 20th, while it will once again feature 68 teams competing to become the collegiate men’s national basketball champion.

With a number of the leading sports betting sites in the US now allowing you to wager on March Madness, you can access a broad selection of props, lines and markets. In this blog post, we’ll explore these in a little more detail, while asking how you can create an optimal NCCA tournament betting strategy in 2025. 

• Brief Introduction Ahead of March Madness in 2025
• What’s the March Madness Schedule for 2025?
• Most Popular March Madness Betting Markets
• Best Strategies for Betting on NCCA Tournament Matches
• March Madness Betting Tips – Wagering on the 2025 Iterations

Brief Introduction Ahead of March Madness in 2025

College sports are incredibly popular and widely watched in the US, especially when it comes to basketball and American Football. Because of this, it should come as no surprise that the NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament has been contested since 1939, with its current, 68-team format first adopted in 2011.

Prior to 2011, the number of competing teams fluctuated wildly, from as little as eight to a high of 53. However, the decision to allow non-conference champions to compete has helped to popularize the tournament throughout the US, with this now categorized as one of the country’s biggest sporting events.

It’s also incredibly competitive and known for producing upsets, and it’s this reputation that has partially inspired the tournament’s ‘March Madness’ nickname. Of course, the event is also held almost exclusively in March, while the CBS Sports show ‘NCAA March Madness’ provides live coverage stateside and has helped to promote the moniker further.

What’s the March Madness Schedule for 2025?

As we’ve touched on, March Madness and the 2025 NCCA Division 1 tournament will commence with a series of first round matches on March 20th. This will follow the full 68-team field being confirmed on March 16th. Here’s a more detailed look at the 2025 schedule and when each round of matches is being played.

Most Popular March Madness Betting Markets

Next in this March Madness betting guide, we’re going to take a closer look at the most widely deployed lines and markets for 2025. As usual, betting on the outright winner of the Championship is the most popular course, with this unlocking highly competitive odds (especially if you wager early enough). Let’s take a closer look at these markets:

• Outright Winner: This straightforward market requires you to pick the outright winner of March Madness in 2025. Currently, the Auburn Tigers are the +325 favorites to prevail in 2022, so a successful $100 stake would yield a total profit of $325. The in-form Duke Blue Devils are also fancied to do well and priced even higher at +425, so are likely to see significant betting action ahead of the event. It’s important to place this type of wager early where possible, as this will unlock the best value odds when backing favorites.
• To Reach the Final Four or Elite Eight: There are six distinct stages of the NCCA Division 1 tournament, starting with round one and finishing with the Championship game. So, you can back teams to reach specific stages of the event, such as Houston to reach the final four. These markets will also unlock competitive odds, while they enable you to achieve optimal value when betting on NCCA tournament games. Once again, such markets tend to be the most profitable when you access them early.
• Match Betting: Of course, you can also wager on the outcome of each individual game at the NCCA Division 1 tournament. This is highly appealing, as all matches deliver a definitive outcome and the draw is not a viable outcome (eliminating the need for three-way moneylines). Match betting also unlocks a range of additional markets that enable you to create value, such as totals lines and spreads. You can also build SGPs at some sportsbooks, enabling you to combine multiple markets from a single match.
• Player Props: You can also access various player props as part of your overall NCCA tournament betting strategy. For example, you can bet on the number of points that a player will score in a particular game, while similar markets may focus on rebounds, assists and blocks. Usually, sportsbooks will set different totals as individual betting lines, and you’ll have to select one before deciding whether the actual total will be over or under this threshold.

Best Strategies for Betting on NCCA Tournament Matches

Now that you’re able to follow the tournament’s 2025 schedule and understand the most popular markets, it’s time to formulate a viable NCCA tournament betting strategy. There are a number of elements to consider here, each of which can help make more informed selection and manage your bankroll in an efficient manner.

#1. Create and Manage Your Bankroll Carefully

When betting on NCCA tournament action, your first port of call should be to create your bankroll. This should never exceed a fixed amount that you can comfortably afford to lose, while it should be based on your real-time financial circumstances and your appetite for risk as a bettor.

Your bankroll should also cover a finite period of time, such as a single round during March Madness or the duration of the tournament. This type of approach not only enables you to gamble responsibly, but you can also distribute your total bankroll evenly between different betting markets and create a manageable unit bet.

Generally speaking, your unit bet should be between 1% and 5% of your total bankroll, but once again this will depend in part on the length of time your bankroll has to cover. You can always review the unit bet and distribution of your bankroll over time, but the key is to wager with discipline and further tailor your stakes depending on odds, implied probability values and potential returns.

#2. Understand the Impact of Injuries and Load Management

Like any other tournament, March Madness requires players to play a potentially large number of matches in a short timeframe. This is similar to the NBA, where injuries are commonplace and teams often rotate their best players as part of effective load management strategies.

So, you’ll need to follow the latest injury and load management news in order to make informed selection (across both team and player props). One of the best March Madness betting tips here is to learn how to read and comprehend injury reports, which detail the severity of a complaint and any potential impact on performance.

If players are listed a ‘Probable’ ahead of a match, this means that a player’s injury isn’t particularly serious and that they’re likely to be fully fit in time for the next game. Those who are doubtful are unlikely to play in the next match, and in this instance, you may want to follow trusted news or social media feeds to learn greater context. You should also factor in a team’s depth of squad before making your picks.

#3. Prepare Your Initial Lines Decisively

If you’re new to college basketball, you won’t know that the sport is home to some significant line swings and shifts (especially in pre-game markets). Some 68 teams compete in the NCAA Division 1 tournament too, so match markets can be difficult to price with any great accuracy or insight.

While some betting lines are likely to be recalibrated after their initial release, this can create advantages for quick and informed bettors. More specifically, if you can prepare your initial betting lines early (such as outright or moneyline picks), you may be able to wager at significantly enhanced odds that are subsequently shortened.

This rule doesn’t apply to all betting markets, but it’s highly recommended when picking outright winners or tournament finishes. Similarly, we’d recommend that you continue to bet on markets that you’re familiar with, as this enables you to focus on your expertise and maximize your starting bankroll.

March Madness Betting Tips – Wagering on the 2025 Iterations

Now, we’re going to take a look at more specific March Madness betting tips and insights for 2025. Some of these may be universally applicable across all iterations of the tournament, whereas others will be based on more recent trends and events. Here’s a summary of our expert’s best tips!

• Pick the Outright Favorites and Number 1 Seeds: While the competition has a penchant for delivering surprise results, the outright favorites often end up doing very well in the NCAA Division 1. Prior to fourth seeds Connecticut Huskies winning the tournament in 2023 and 2024, for example, the previous five champions had all been seeded first. So, continue to prioritize outright favorites, who are the Auburn Tigers in 2025.
• Identify the Best Value Underdogs: Surprise or shock results are most likely to be recorded during the opening tournament rounds. After all, teams seeded fifth, sixth and seventh have win percentages lower than 66% in the first round alone, so backing sides ranked lower than 10th at this time may prove profitable. Just remember to inform your underdog picks using careful data and form analysis rather than betting blindly or based on emotion.
• Create Value Using Spreads: While moneylines remain the most popular way of betting on March Madness matches, you can also create additional value by leveraging spreads. Even nominal spreads (such as –6.5 points) can unlock potential value bets and higher returns, especially when you use scoring performance data to inform your picks. Totals betting is another way of creating value when engaging in match betting, while you can build combination wagers to boost your potential returns further.