Betting on the US Presidential Debates in 2024

By Matt Speakman,
Betting Expert at online-gambling.com

Matt Speakman Betting Expert at online-gambling.com

A die-hard fan of the Patriots, Matt Speakman is an expert on everything related to sports betting and DFS sites. Over the years, he has proven a valuable asset for our team at online-gambling.com. You can find Speakman's professional tips and tricks in any of his many articles on the website.

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Last updated: June 29, 2024

There are many unusual things that people can bet on, from the lives and deaths of the Royal Family to the outcome of elections around the world. The intricacies of the latest US presidential debate were no exception. On Thursday June 27, candidates President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump faced off during a ninety-minute debate hosted by CNN.

Bettors had the opportunity to place wagers on a variety of outcomes. Though one might wonder how to bet on a debate since there is no definitive winner in the way that there would be during an election, it is indeed possible, and many people took part in the act of betting on the event.

How a Winner is Determined

Despite the clear difference between judging the outcome of a debate and the outcome of an election, one offshore sportsbook offered the option of betting on a so-called “winner.” BetOnline placed Trump as the -165 favorite, while Biden was the underdog at +125.

For those wondering how BetOnline determined its winner, the sportsbook shared that it would use official post-debate CNN polls in order to find the result. Many articles following the debate toed the line, saying that it was difficult to determine a clear winner. At the time of writing, poll results have not been released, but a representative of BetOnline shared that “It would be one of the biggest upsets of all-time for it not to be Donald Trump as the winner.”

This result followed the trend of an unofficial poll the sportsbook placed on its Twitter feed, which had Trump voted the winner with 84.2% of the vote. This is a clear change from the final 2020 debate between the two contenders, during which Biden won polls by 53%. Meanwhile, some Twitter users have cheekily responded that the debate winner doesn’t matter: “America is losing.”

It is important to note that BetOnline is not recognized by any US gambling authorities. Furthermore, though BetOnline and others offer odds on American political events, voting on political outcomes has not been formally legalized in any US state so far. Therefore, betting on these types of matters with offshore sportsbooks can be a risk for would-be bettors. Additionally, states such as Michigan have started sending cease-and-desist letters to illegal offshore operators.

Popular Prop Bets for the Debate

Aside from the overall “winner,” bettors had a chance to put their money on a variety of prop bets regarding the debate. On the platform Kalshi, there was a chance to bet on what topics would most likely be mentioned, with “inflation” and “immigration” topping the list.

Polymarket also took bets on possible outcomes, including a 5% chance of the debate being canceled altogether. Polymarket does not legally accept bets from US bettors but took in $500,000 on the debate according to Forbes.

Polymarket also took bets regarding what catchphrases Trump might drop during his answers, including “Fake News,” “Dementia,” “Sleepy Joe,” and “Rigged.” Another platform took bets on whether or not the two candidates would shake hands before the debate: They did not shake hands, proving predictions correct.

Returning to BetOnline, the platform also had its own amusing prop bet possibilities. This included who would raise their voice first, who would mispronounce a politician’s name first, how many times Putin would be mentioned, which candidate would trend highest on X, who would drink from a water bottle first and who would be first to interrupt a moderator.

It does not seem that any platforms predicted the two would go head-to-head over which of them has the better golf handicap.